Euro in Range, Sterling Retreats after Central Banks on Hold
Euro stays in tight range while Sterling retreats mildly term ECB and BoE left rates unchanged. ECB kept rates unchanged at 4.00% today. In the following press conference, Trichet said that even though policy stance is still on the "accommodative side" and inflation risks remains on the upside in the medium term, more information is needed before the next policy move. Also Trichet said that it's too early to draw conclusion from the current correction in risk reassessment. No "vigilance" was used by Trichet this time which suggests that ECB will be on hold for a while, at least, till Oct. One thing to note is that Trichet emphasized a few times that ECB has to ensure that money markets function properly whatever the interest rate is and that this is completely separate topic to maintaining price stability. Also, ECB announced a new long-term refinancing operation as a supplementary operation will be conducted, the details of which will be available right after the press conference.
BoE kept rates unchanged at 5.75% as widely expected. In the accompanying statement BoE expect inflation to remain close to its 2% target, or a "little below", in the next few months. Also, "tentative signs of a lowing in consumer spending" is noted. But "indicators of pricing pressure remain somewhat elevated. " Regarding the recent credit crunch, BoE noted that it's too soon to tell how the disruption in financial markets will impair the availability of credit to companies and households but will monitor closely the evolution of both "credit spreads" and the "quantities of credit extended". more details will be available in the minutes to be published on Sep 19.
From US, jobless claims dropped more than expected to 318k. Q2 productivity accelerated more than expected to 2.6% while unit labor costs slowed to 1.4%, suggesting reduced risk of wave inflation. Next will be ISM Non-manufacturing Index. Dollar has been pressured since yesterday's poor ADP and pending home sales. Additional pressure will be seen in case of downside surprise in today's ISM non-manufacturing index as markets are already speculating and poor NFP number tomorrow.
Saturday, September 08, 2007
Monday, August 27, 2007
FX Markets Quietly Steady after Existing Home Sales
FX Markets Quietly Steady after Existing Home Sales
The forex markets are quietly steady in early US session. Existing home sales in US dropped merely 0.2% in Jul from an upwardly revised 5.76m annualized rate to 5.75m. Though it marked a fifth consecutive decline in the existing home sales and is the lowest reading since Nov 02, it's slightly better than expectation of 5.70m. The inventory-to-sales ratio surged to 9.6 months, while the median existing price is down by 0.6%. The data offered no catalyst for more volatility in the markets. Focus will be shifting to tomorrow's Germany Ifo and Eurozone M3.
Speaking of the Euro, the highly anticipated speech from Trichet has just focused on productivity. He said that eurozone productivity growth is "disappointing" comparing with more resilient growth in the US. And it is also "not particularly high" compared with previous business cycles. Productivity growth has been stronger in the manufacturing sector. But in services sector, it has not improved much. Trichet has signaled a Sep hike in the Aug ECB meeting just before turmoil in the financial markets. Markets hoped for some hints from Trichet on whether ECB will still hike or not in today's speech.
The forex markets are quietly steady in early US session. Existing home sales in US dropped merely 0.2% in Jul from an upwardly revised 5.76m annualized rate to 5.75m. Though it marked a fifth consecutive decline in the existing home sales and is the lowest reading since Nov 02, it's slightly better than expectation of 5.70m. The inventory-to-sales ratio surged to 9.6 months, while the median existing price is down by 0.6%. The data offered no catalyst for more volatility in the markets. Focus will be shifting to tomorrow's Germany Ifo and Eurozone M3.
Speaking of the Euro, the highly anticipated speech from Trichet has just focused on productivity. He said that eurozone productivity growth is "disappointing" comparing with more resilient growth in the US. And it is also "not particularly high" compared with previous business cycles. Productivity growth has been stronger in the manufacturing sector. But in services sector, it has not improved much. Trichet has signaled a Sep hike in the Aug ECB meeting just before turmoil in the financial markets. Markets hoped for some hints from Trichet on whether ECB will still hike or not in today's speech.
Tuesday, August 07, 2007
Friday, August 03, 2007
Stay away from bonds, warns economist
Stay away from bonds, warns economist
FinanceAsia, 3 August 2007
Link: http://www.financeasia.com/print.aspx?CIID=88105
Robert Lind says high-yield bonds are particularly vulnerable to the
market correction and should warrant higher risk premiums.
After Wednesday's global stock market crash, which caused Hong Kong's
Hang Seng index to drop 3.15%, the markets have been fickle. Intraday
trade has been erratic as bargain hunters move in and out of stocks,
trying to determine the markets' next move.
Negative sentiment has been fuelled by a couple of bad news reports.
Bear Stearns halted redemptions in a mortgage-related hedge fund in the
US, and Australia's Macquarie Bank said two of its bond funds may suffer
potential losses of up to 25%.
As stocks rose yesterday, Moody's darkened the mood again. The credit
ratings agency placed MGIC Australia's rating on review for possible
downgrade. MGIC Australia, is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Mortgage
Guaranty Insurance Corporation, a leading mortgage insurer in the US.
In this environment, investors are finding it impossible to price risk.
The benchmark iTraxx Crossover index, which consists of 50 mostly
junk-rated credits and is an important indicator of sentiment, broke the
500 barrier on Monday - illustrating the heightened cost of insurance
for the most risky assets. But it came down again substantially on
Tuesday, closing at 402, while rising once again on Wednesday to 475.
Says one specialist high-yield investor: "This magnitude of change only
happens every five to 10 years. Investors are so nervous they just don't
know what to do with their money and are behaving erratically."
However, Robert Lind, head of macro research at ABN AMRO, states that
these significant market moves should be viewed as a "normalisation",
which has come about following a bullrun in credit where investors
"bought anything", at prices which did not adequately reflect the risk.
"The areas which have suffered the most significant compressions are the
high-yield debt sectors in emerging markets. These markets should be
perceived as very vulnerable and warrant a much greater risk premium
than they have offered so far. We still need to see investors exercise
considerably more discrimination in their assessment of risk."
Since the tight spreads over the last few years have come about by in an
era of historically low interest rates in an environment of strong
global growth, Lind thinks it is likely that rates will increase. This
should lead to a gradual widening of spreads, although recent events -
which were long overdue - reflect a process which can occasionally be
quite dramatic.
In its latest credit commentary, BNP Paribas says: "The amplitude and
velocity of spread widening in the cash bond, asset swap and CDS sectors
virtually ensure the markets will overshoot. The growing sense of dread
however over rising contagion risks and falling liquidity conditions
hints at fear-driven trade trumping credit rating upgrades and the
positive trends in economic, inflation, and interest rate data; thus we
anticipate more widening in credit spreads."
However, interest rates are still far from restrictive. According to
Lind, the greatest concern is whether the market is appropriately
pricing in the risk of the US housing problem, which triggered the
correction in the first place, and inflation, which are the two factors
that could dampen global growth.
"Fundamentally, from our perspective, investors need to be cautious of
corporate bonds. They are still too expensive. If they want to play the
economic cycle, a better way of doing so is via the equity market, which
is still well-supported in terms of valuation and growth. Obviously, we
are still in an environment where the pressure on credit could continue
to weigh on equities, so investors should shift from riskier areas of
the equity market to safer ones."
FinanceAsia, 3 August 2007
Link: http://www.financeasia.com/print.aspx?CIID=88105
Robert Lind says high-yield bonds are particularly vulnerable to the
market correction and should warrant higher risk premiums.
After Wednesday's global stock market crash, which caused Hong Kong's
Hang Seng index to drop 3.15%, the markets have been fickle. Intraday
trade has been erratic as bargain hunters move in and out of stocks,
trying to determine the markets' next move.
Negative sentiment has been fuelled by a couple of bad news reports.
Bear Stearns halted redemptions in a mortgage-related hedge fund in the
US, and Australia's Macquarie Bank said two of its bond funds may suffer
potential losses of up to 25%.
As stocks rose yesterday, Moody's darkened the mood again. The credit
ratings agency placed MGIC Australia's rating on review for possible
downgrade. MGIC Australia, is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Mortgage
Guaranty Insurance Corporation, a leading mortgage insurer in the US.
In this environment, investors are finding it impossible to price risk.
The benchmark iTraxx Crossover index, which consists of 50 mostly
junk-rated credits and is an important indicator of sentiment, broke the
500 barrier on Monday - illustrating the heightened cost of insurance
for the most risky assets. But it came down again substantially on
Tuesday, closing at 402, while rising once again on Wednesday to 475.
Says one specialist high-yield investor: "This magnitude of change only
happens every five to 10 years. Investors are so nervous they just don't
know what to do with their money and are behaving erratically."
However, Robert Lind, head of macro research at ABN AMRO, states that
these significant market moves should be viewed as a "normalisation",
which has come about following a bullrun in credit where investors
"bought anything", at prices which did not adequately reflect the risk.
"The areas which have suffered the most significant compressions are the
high-yield debt sectors in emerging markets. These markets should be
perceived as very vulnerable and warrant a much greater risk premium
than they have offered so far. We still need to see investors exercise
considerably more discrimination in their assessment of risk."
Since the tight spreads over the last few years have come about by in an
era of historically low interest rates in an environment of strong
global growth, Lind thinks it is likely that rates will increase. This
should lead to a gradual widening of spreads, although recent events -
which were long overdue - reflect a process which can occasionally be
quite dramatic.
In its latest credit commentary, BNP Paribas says: "The amplitude and
velocity of spread widening in the cash bond, asset swap and CDS sectors
virtually ensure the markets will overshoot. The growing sense of dread
however over rising contagion risks and falling liquidity conditions
hints at fear-driven trade trumping credit rating upgrades and the
positive trends in economic, inflation, and interest rate data; thus we
anticipate more widening in credit spreads."
However, interest rates are still far from restrictive. According to
Lind, the greatest concern is whether the market is appropriately
pricing in the risk of the US housing problem, which triggered the
correction in the first place, and inflation, which are the two factors
that could dampen global growth.
"Fundamentally, from our perspective, investors need to be cautious of
corporate bonds. They are still too expensive. If they want to play the
economic cycle, a better way of doing so is via the equity market, which
is still well-supported in terms of valuation and growth. Obviously, we
are still in an environment where the pressure on credit could continue
to weigh on equities, so investors should shift from riskier areas of
the equity market to safer ones."
Wednesday, July 18, 2007
Dollar posts modest rise after stronger-than expected CPI, housing data
Dollar posts modest rise after stronger-than expected CPI, housing data
LONDON - The dollar posted a modest rise after US inflation and housing figures came in stronger than expected.
The CPI measure of inflation rose 0.2 pct in June from May, the smallest monthly increase since January but above analyst expectations of a 0.1 pct rise.
Meanwhile in the US housing sector, which is generally seen as the economy's weakpoint, figures showed the number of new homes built in June posted a 2.3 pct rise from a year ago to a 1.467 mln unit annual rate. The consensus forecast had been for a more moderate rise to 1.450 mln units.
The figures caused the dollar to make a moderate gain against the euro, although its moves are likely to be limited while markets await Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony to congress.
At 1.44 pm, the euro was at 1.3755 usd having been at 1.3780 shortly before the data was released. The pound also slid further off its morning high against the greenback, dropping to 2.0464 usd from 2.0505.
The pound, which had earlier set a 26-year high of 2.0547 usd, retreated steadily to below the 2.04 usd level on the news that the 9-strong BoE rate-setting committee was split by a 6-to-3 margin to hike borrowing costs to 5.75 pct this month.
The news was seen as a little less hawkish than expected and led to a slight scaling back in rate hike expectations.
Markets still predict another quarter point hike, to 6.00 pct, over the coming months but appear to be a little less certain whether an increase to 6.25 pct will materialise.
However, Bear Stearns analysts said the data will do little to change the outlook for interest rates in the UK.
"The tone of the MPC hawks remains uncompromising and it sounds like the UK is on a collision course with 6.0 pct rates before year end," they said. "There is obviously a split in thinking in the MPC in terms of how far rates need to go, so timing for the next move will be down to the data and (BoE governor) Mervyn King's hearts and minds campaign in the next few months," they added.
LONDON - The dollar posted a modest rise after US inflation and housing figures came in stronger than expected.
The CPI measure of inflation rose 0.2 pct in June from May, the smallest monthly increase since January but above analyst expectations of a 0.1 pct rise.
Meanwhile in the US housing sector, which is generally seen as the economy's weakpoint, figures showed the number of new homes built in June posted a 2.3 pct rise from a year ago to a 1.467 mln unit annual rate. The consensus forecast had been for a more moderate rise to 1.450 mln units.
The figures caused the dollar to make a moderate gain against the euro, although its moves are likely to be limited while markets await Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony to congress.
At 1.44 pm, the euro was at 1.3755 usd having been at 1.3780 shortly before the data was released. The pound also slid further off its morning high against the greenback, dropping to 2.0464 usd from 2.0505.
The pound, which had earlier set a 26-year high of 2.0547 usd, retreated steadily to below the 2.04 usd level on the news that the 9-strong BoE rate-setting committee was split by a 6-to-3 margin to hike borrowing costs to 5.75 pct this month.
The news was seen as a little less hawkish than expected and led to a slight scaling back in rate hike expectations.
Markets still predict another quarter point hike, to 6.00 pct, over the coming months but appear to be a little less certain whether an increase to 6.25 pct will materialise.
However, Bear Stearns analysts said the data will do little to change the outlook for interest rates in the UK.
"The tone of the MPC hawks remains uncompromising and it sounds like the UK is on a collision course with 6.0 pct rates before year end," they said. "There is obviously a split in thinking in the MPC in terms of how far rates need to go, so timing for the next move will be down to the data and (BoE governor) Mervyn King's hearts and minds campaign in the next few months," they added.
Monday, July 16, 2007
Strong NY State Index Provides No Support to Dollar
The New York State Manufacturing Index defied critics once again in Jul and rose to 26.46, reaching a one year high, and being much better than expectation of a fall to 28.0. The index indicates manufacturing conditions continue to improve in the New York State, with details supporting the headline view. However, this piece of good news provides little support to the green back and it continues to remain pressured. Dollar continue to hover near record low against Euro, falls to fresh 26 year low against sterling. In addition, the greenback is still staying near to the new 22 years low and 18 years low against Kiwi and Aussie made earlier today. Canadian dollar is also hovering new 30 year high against the greenback.
Nevertheless, downside momentum in the greenback is limited so far as traders are holding their bets on some key events in the week. Producer and consumer inflation will be featured in the coming two days with another round of housing data. More important, Bernanke will have his semi-annual testimony on Wed and Thu, together with the release of FOMC minutes.
GBP/USD
Daily Pivots: (S1) 2.0279; (P) 2.0323; (R1) 2.0385
Cable's recent rally resumes today by surging to new 26 years high at 2.0403. At this point, further rally should be seen as long as cable stays above 2.0307 minor support. Sustained trading above trend line resistance (now at 2.0380) will encourage further rally towards next upside target of 100% projection of 1.9183 to 2.0132 from 1.9621 at 2.0570. However, note that upside momentum is seen diminishing with mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours RSI. A break below 2.0307 minor support will indicate that the rally from 1.9621 could have made a top and deeper correction should then be seen towards 2.0056 support.
In the bigger picture, the sustained break of 2.0207 projection target confirms underlying upside momentum is still strong. Also, it added much credence to the case that whole up trend from 1.7047 is resumption of multi-year up trend from 1.3680. In such case, further rally should then be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.3680 (01 low) to 1.9554 (05 high) from 1.7047 (05 low) at 2.0677 first.
Having said that, even in case of a short term correction, downside should be contained above 1.9783 resistance turned support and bring medium term rally resumption. Also, break of 1.9862 low is needed to indicate a medium term top is formed and turn outlook neutral. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bullish.
Nevertheless, downside momentum in the greenback is limited so far as traders are holding their bets on some key events in the week. Producer and consumer inflation will be featured in the coming two days with another round of housing data. More important, Bernanke will have his semi-annual testimony on Wed and Thu, together with the release of FOMC minutes.
GBP/USD
Daily Pivots: (S1) 2.0279; (P) 2.0323; (R1) 2.0385
Cable's recent rally resumes today by surging to new 26 years high at 2.0403. At this point, further rally should be seen as long as cable stays above 2.0307 minor support. Sustained trading above trend line resistance (now at 2.0380) will encourage further rally towards next upside target of 100% projection of 1.9183 to 2.0132 from 1.9621 at 2.0570. However, note that upside momentum is seen diminishing with mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours RSI. A break below 2.0307 minor support will indicate that the rally from 1.9621 could have made a top and deeper correction should then be seen towards 2.0056 support.
In the bigger picture, the sustained break of 2.0207 projection target confirms underlying upside momentum is still strong. Also, it added much credence to the case that whole up trend from 1.7047 is resumption of multi-year up trend from 1.3680. In such case, further rally should then be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.3680 (01 low) to 1.9554 (05 high) from 1.7047 (05 low) at 2.0677 first.
Having said that, even in case of a short term correction, downside should be contained above 1.9783 resistance turned support and bring medium term rally resumption. Also, break of 1.9862 low is needed to indicate a medium term top is formed and turn outlook neutral. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bullish.
Sunday, July 15, 2007
What ARE the 17 Steps? by Van Tharp
Lets take a look at the 17 steps one by one, with the first of the eight steps involving the development of a sound business plan.
First — assess your beliefs about trading and about yourself.
Although it’s difficult to grasp, did you know that nobody actually trades the market? Instead, you always trade your beliefs about the market
Second — determine your objectives for trading. System experts know that understanding your objectives thoroughly is half the battle in developing a system but most people have never taken the time to even consider what their objectives might be.
Third — understand the big picture. What’s the market doing overall and how can you measure it for yourself? It's important that you know how to determine the big picture for yourself and how to measure it.
Fourth — include three strategies that are compatible with the big picture in your business plan. Although there are thousands of systems out there, there are not many types of strategies. Know the essence of ten key strategies that you could use, the general picture of how they work and how you can adapt them for yourself.
Fifth — understand what your personal edges might be and how they set you off from the crowd. Having an edge in the markets isn’t just a slight advantage; it could be the pivotal difference in your success. So it’s very important to list your edges in your business plan and be able to capitalize on them. You need to know the key edges that almost any investor has over market makers or institutional investors. Or if you are a CTA, hedge fund, or portfolio manager, you need to know what your key edges might be.
Sixth — understand the key systems that almost every business must understand and start to think about developing structures for those systems. From marketing to cash flow, to back office and clients, trading is a business and should be regarded as such. More importantly, developing the right structures and systems is crucial for business success. For example, if you are a private trader, you must deal with clients – even if those clients are you and your family.
Seventh — develop a worst-case contingency plan. Most people don’t even consider this crucial component until it’s too late, but the key to a successful business plan is to be able to overcome disaster.
Eighth — select your trading market based upon two key factors. Learn what you need to know so that you can determine the following: Are you going to trade stocks? Are you going to trade futures? Are you going to trade mini-forex or real forex through the big banks? Are you going to do options on any of these? What market will you trade? Whatever you select must take into account the big picture and what is likely to happen in the next five to ten years.
Ninth — know about strategy preparation. There are several key sub steps that you should take before you think about trading. You need to know what you should do to get ready and how to follow up.
Tenth — know the key steps in strategy development and how to test for each. You’ll need to understand how to test exit signals, determine what your initial risk will be, and select and test your profit taking exits.
Eleventh — properly evaluate your system. Know what information you’ll need to gather to really test and compare your system with any other system. It's good to have a formula that will allow you to compare your system with any other system in the world and rank that system. Thus, you’ll know whether your system is weak, average, good, excellent, or superb.
Twelfth — master a simple way to get to know your system well without a lot of cost. You need a method to understand if your back testing is accurate. And, to understand what the worst-case scenarios will be for your system. Through this testing, you’ll be able to develop a simple position sizing model to fit your objectives.
Thirteenth — work on your objectives to actually develop position sizing models. This step is one of the keys to developing a system that fits you.
Fourteenth — know how to do a complete self-assessment. A successful trader needs to know the answer to these questions: How does my personality type impact trading? What is the most important attitude that I must have as a trader and how can I assess if I have it? What are my beliefs and values and how can I assess them? How do I begin to assess my key issues so that I know what could happen that might really interfere with my trading?
Fifteenth — commitment to do what it takes. There are many things you can do on a regular basis to really improve yourself. And if you have the commitment to really doing them, you’ll be unstoppable.
Sixteenth — how to develop a top down approach to discipline. Few traders have the kind of discipline needed for successful trading, but if you combine top-down discipline with regular self-work, you’ll be amazed at the difference in your trading.
Seventeenth — put what you know into action. Learning and studying are very important factors in any endeavor, however the only true way to be successful as a trader is to take action. Getting in there and learning from your experiences.
First — assess your beliefs about trading and about yourself.
Although it’s difficult to grasp, did you know that nobody actually trades the market? Instead, you always trade your beliefs about the market
Second — determine your objectives for trading. System experts know that understanding your objectives thoroughly is half the battle in developing a system but most people have never taken the time to even consider what their objectives might be.
Third — understand the big picture. What’s the market doing overall and how can you measure it for yourself? It's important that you know how to determine the big picture for yourself and how to measure it.
Fourth — include three strategies that are compatible with the big picture in your business plan. Although there are thousands of systems out there, there are not many types of strategies. Know the essence of ten key strategies that you could use, the general picture of how they work and how you can adapt them for yourself.
Fifth — understand what your personal edges might be and how they set you off from the crowd. Having an edge in the markets isn’t just a slight advantage; it could be the pivotal difference in your success. So it’s very important to list your edges in your business plan and be able to capitalize on them. You need to know the key edges that almost any investor has over market makers or institutional investors. Or if you are a CTA, hedge fund, or portfolio manager, you need to know what your key edges might be.
Sixth — understand the key systems that almost every business must understand and start to think about developing structures for those systems. From marketing to cash flow, to back office and clients, trading is a business and should be regarded as such. More importantly, developing the right structures and systems is crucial for business success. For example, if you are a private trader, you must deal with clients – even if those clients are you and your family.
Seventh — develop a worst-case contingency plan. Most people don’t even consider this crucial component until it’s too late, but the key to a successful business plan is to be able to overcome disaster.
Eighth — select your trading market based upon two key factors. Learn what you need to know so that you can determine the following: Are you going to trade stocks? Are you going to trade futures? Are you going to trade mini-forex or real forex through the big banks? Are you going to do options on any of these? What market will you trade? Whatever you select must take into account the big picture and what is likely to happen in the next five to ten years.
Ninth — know about strategy preparation. There are several key sub steps that you should take before you think about trading. You need to know what you should do to get ready and how to follow up.
Tenth — know the key steps in strategy development and how to test for each. You’ll need to understand how to test exit signals, determine what your initial risk will be, and select and test your profit taking exits.
Eleventh — properly evaluate your system. Know what information you’ll need to gather to really test and compare your system with any other system. It's good to have a formula that will allow you to compare your system with any other system in the world and rank that system. Thus, you’ll know whether your system is weak, average, good, excellent, or superb.
Twelfth — master a simple way to get to know your system well without a lot of cost. You need a method to understand if your back testing is accurate. And, to understand what the worst-case scenarios will be for your system. Through this testing, you’ll be able to develop a simple position sizing model to fit your objectives.
Thirteenth — work on your objectives to actually develop position sizing models. This step is one of the keys to developing a system that fits you.
Fourteenth — know how to do a complete self-assessment. A successful trader needs to know the answer to these questions: How does my personality type impact trading? What is the most important attitude that I must have as a trader and how can I assess if I have it? What are my beliefs and values and how can I assess them? How do I begin to assess my key issues so that I know what could happen that might really interfere with my trading?
Fifteenth — commitment to do what it takes. There are many things you can do on a regular basis to really improve yourself. And if you have the commitment to really doing them, you’ll be unstoppable.
Sixteenth — how to develop a top down approach to discipline. Few traders have the kind of discipline needed for successful trading, but if you combine top-down discipline with regular self-work, you’ll be amazed at the difference in your trading.
Seventeenth — put what you know into action. Learning and studying are very important factors in any endeavor, however the only true way to be successful as a trader is to take action. Getting in there and learning from your experiences.
Saturday, July 14, 2007
Dollar Hovers Near Lows ahead of Retail Sales
Dollar is generally in consolidation mode near to recent lows ahead of today's retail sales data from US. Apparently, market hesitates to push the greenback through some key near term support levels against Sterling and Swissy this week. Even though EUR/USD edged to new record high, the medium term resistance of 1.3822 is playing some effect in capping the pair's rally. Growth in headline sales is expected fall back to 0.1% Jun after a strong rise of 1.4% in May. Growth in ex-auto sales is also expected to slow from 1.3% to 0.2%. However, with a lot of details in the report, there are a lot of uncertainty on how markets will react, in particular if the actual data comes in not far off expectation. Also, considering Friday's profit taking effect, we could still see the some dollar rebound even if retail sales disappoints today.
Other data from US include import prices which is expected to slow from 0.9% to 0.7% in Jun, business inventories which is expected to slow from 0.4% to 0.3% in May and University of Michigan consumer sentiment which is expected to rise slightly from 85.3 to 86.0 in Jun.
The Japanese yen remains generally weak today as global stocks soars. Meanwhile, Kiwi rebounded sharply overnight after much stronger than expected retail sales growth of 1.2% which enforces speculations that RBNZ is not done with the current tightening cycle. But after all, the rally in Kiwi is still limited by last week's high of 0.7879.
Other data from US include import prices which is expected to slow from 0.9% to 0.7% in Jun, business inventories which is expected to slow from 0.4% to 0.3% in May and University of Michigan consumer sentiment which is expected to rise slightly from 85.3 to 86.0 in Jun.
The Japanese yen remains generally weak today as global stocks soars. Meanwhile, Kiwi rebounded sharply overnight after much stronger than expected retail sales growth of 1.2% which enforces speculations that RBNZ is not done with the current tightening cycle. But after all, the rally in Kiwi is still limited by last week's high of 0.7879.
Sunday, July 01, 2007
FX Mastery Trading Seminar 2007
I just came back from Petaling Jaya for 2 Days FX Mastery Trading Seminar by Dar Wong at PJ Hilton.
Wednesday, June 27, 2007
Kuasa Forex Seminar Gempur 2007
I attend the Forex Seminar at Berjaya Times Level 14 for Forex Trading Seminar by Mohd Nazri Yacob.
Thursday, June 07, 2007
Rahsia Orang-orang Terkaya Di Malaysia Terbongkar
Rahsia Forex adalah buku sensasi dari Fadzley,Jutawan Muda Melayu yang bakal merubah kehidupan anda sekarang.Fadzley akan membongkar rahsia menjana pendapatan yang lumayanyang selama ini digunakan oleh institusi-institusi kewangan dan orang-orang terkaya di Malaysia.
http://www.rahsiaforex.com/affiliate/?i=trader8/
Berikut adalah pengakuan salah seorang pelajar, Desmond Landing dari Lahad Datu, Sabah, yang telah mengaplikasikan teknik dan strategi yang Fadzley gunakan untuk menjana beribu-ribu setiap saat.
------------------------------------------------------
"Hai Fadzley,
Saya ingin ucap terima kasih banyak-banyak sama kamu. Didikan kamu sangat berkesan serta sangat mudah di ikuti.
Selepas mempelajari dan mempraktiskan teknik rahsia kamu ini, saya telah berjaya mendapat RM3,000 hasil usaha saya dalam masa 5 hari...
Wah, bagaikan mimpi saya ketika itu. Sehingga kini pun saya masih rasa bagaikan bermimpi. Saya tahu teknik kamu bagus dan boleh mendatangkan untung pada saya, tapi saya tidak sangka sehingga begini BANYAK dalam masa yang begitu SINGKAT pula.
Jika saya tahu, sudah pasti saya melabur lebih banyak lagi dan menjadi kaya raya seperti kamu. Kamu adalah idola saya sekarang kerana kamu telah membuka mata saya kepada potensi wang yang bakal saya peroleh.
Terima kasih.
- Desmond Landing Lahad Datu, Sabah"
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Anda juga boleh mendapat hasil yang sama seperti Desmond dengan mengaplikasikanteknik dan strategi yang terdapat di dalam Rahsia Forex.
Baca pengakuan dari mereka-mereka yang telah mencubanyadan beroleh keuntungan lumayan daripada buku ini.
http://www.rahsiaforex.com/affiliate/?i=trader8
Selamat berjaya.
http://www.rahsiaforex.com/affiliate/?i=trader8/
Berikut adalah pengakuan salah seorang pelajar, Desmond Landing dari Lahad Datu, Sabah, yang telah mengaplikasikan teknik dan strategi yang Fadzley gunakan untuk menjana beribu-ribu setiap saat.
------------------------------------------------------
"Hai Fadzley,
Saya ingin ucap terima kasih banyak-banyak sama kamu. Didikan kamu sangat berkesan serta sangat mudah di ikuti.
Selepas mempelajari dan mempraktiskan teknik rahsia kamu ini, saya telah berjaya mendapat RM3,000 hasil usaha saya dalam masa 5 hari...
Wah, bagaikan mimpi saya ketika itu. Sehingga kini pun saya masih rasa bagaikan bermimpi. Saya tahu teknik kamu bagus dan boleh mendatangkan untung pada saya, tapi saya tidak sangka sehingga begini BANYAK dalam masa yang begitu SINGKAT pula.
Jika saya tahu, sudah pasti saya melabur lebih banyak lagi dan menjadi kaya raya seperti kamu. Kamu adalah idola saya sekarang kerana kamu telah membuka mata saya kepada potensi wang yang bakal saya peroleh.
Terima kasih.
- Desmond Landing Lahad Datu, Sabah"
----------------------------------------------------------
Anda juga boleh mendapat hasil yang sama seperti Desmond dengan mengaplikasikanteknik dan strategi yang terdapat di dalam Rahsia Forex.
Baca pengakuan dari mereka-mereka yang telah mencubanyadan beroleh keuntungan lumayan daripada buku ini.
http://www.rahsiaforex.com/affiliate/?i=trader8
Selamat berjaya.
Wednesday, June 06, 2007
EUR/USD's
EUR/USD's rise from 1.3391 stalls after breaking short term falling trend line (now at 1.3523) briefly. Nevertheless, intraday bias will remain on the upside as long as 1.3487 holds. Since the corrective fall from 1.3681 is regarded as completed with three waves down to 1.3391 with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI, further rally is expected to follow to towards 1.3609 resistance. Break will encourage a retest of 1.3681 high.
On the downside, touching of 1.3487 will turn intraday outlook consolidative first. In case of pull back, sustained trading below 1.3364 cluster support is needed to confirm underlying bearishness. Otherwise, the corrective fall from 1.3681 is still considered either ended or to be ended soon. That is, another strong rebound is likely to follow.
In the bigger picture, with 1.3364 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2865 to 1.3681 at 1.3369) remains intact, the rise from 1.2865 is still expected to resume to above 1.3681. However, risk of medium term reversal is still high. As discussed before, medium term up trend from 1.1639 is interpreted as having first move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend from 1.1639. With such interpretation, we'd expect risk of medium term reversal to increase significantly after EUR/USD met resistance zone between 1.3668 and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Hence, focus is now on reversal signals.
On the downside, decisive break of 1.3364 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2865 to 1.3681 at 1.3369) is needed to confirm a medium term top is made. More importantly, with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and RSI, this will warn that the whole rally from 1.2483 has also completed, and, so is the whole up trend from 1.1639. Focus will then be back to medium term rising channel support (now at 1.3049).
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3489; (P) 1.3520; (R1) 1.3555
On the downside, touching of 1.3487 will turn intraday outlook consolidative first. In case of pull back, sustained trading below 1.3364 cluster support is needed to confirm underlying bearishness. Otherwise, the corrective fall from 1.3681 is still considered either ended or to be ended soon. That is, another strong rebound is likely to follow.
In the bigger picture, with 1.3364 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2865 to 1.3681 at 1.3369) remains intact, the rise from 1.2865 is still expected to resume to above 1.3681. However, risk of medium term reversal is still high. As discussed before, medium term up trend from 1.1639 is interpreted as having first move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend from 1.1639. With such interpretation, we'd expect risk of medium term reversal to increase significantly after EUR/USD met resistance zone between 1.3668 and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Hence, focus is now on reversal signals.
On the downside, decisive break of 1.3364 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2865 to 1.3681 at 1.3369) is needed to confirm a medium term top is made. More importantly, with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and RSI, this will warn that the whole rally from 1.2483 has also completed, and, so is the whole up trend from 1.1639. Focus will then be back to medium term rising channel support (now at 1.3049).
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3489; (P) 1.3520; (R1) 1.3555
Tuesday, June 05, 2007
Dollar Sent Lower by Bernanke but Drawing Support from ISMDollar's
sell off resumes in early US session after comments from Bernanke which said that housing market's drag on the economy could persist somewhat longer than expected even though the slump has not spilled over into other parts of the economy yet. He said in his speech "The Housing Market and Subprime Lending" in the International Monetary Conference in South Africa via satellite that tighter standard is now required by investors and creditors will no doubt restrain housing demand in the subprime market and some near-prime borrowers may also be shut out. Regarding inflation, though, Bernanke still believes that risk is to the upside and economy will grow at near trend rate.
Dollar additionally pressured by speculation that the United Arab Emirates may be the next Middle Eastern country to end the dollar peg. Syria and Kuwait had recent announced that they would dump the dollar peg to curb rising import costs and inflation that was pushed up by rising costs of imports from Asia and Europe. However, much stronger than expected ISM non-manufacturing index, which rose to 59.7 in May versus expectation of 55.3, is providing some support to the greenback.
Euro, on the other hand was supported by solid Services PMI in May and IMF's raising of its forecast for the growth in the Eurozone economy from 2.3% in 2007 to around 2.5%. IMF also expects that the expansion will "continue apace" next year. Though, Apr retail sales missed expectation by growing 0.2% mom, 1.6% yoy only.
The Aussie remains firm too and took out this year high of 0.8390, reaching as high as 0.8406 so far, highest since Aug 90. Though RBA is widely expected to keep rate unchanged at 6.25% in the coming Asian session, expectation is still firm on another rate hike, probably in near term. Also, Aussie continues to draw support from carry trade. Q1 GDP will also be closely watched in the coming Asia session too and is expected to grow 1.0% qoq, 2.9% yoy.
Dollar additionally pressured by speculation that the United Arab Emirates may be the next Middle Eastern country to end the dollar peg. Syria and Kuwait had recent announced that they would dump the dollar peg to curb rising import costs and inflation that was pushed up by rising costs of imports from Asia and Europe. However, much stronger than expected ISM non-manufacturing index, which rose to 59.7 in May versus expectation of 55.3, is providing some support to the greenback.
Euro, on the other hand was supported by solid Services PMI in May and IMF's raising of its forecast for the growth in the Eurozone economy from 2.3% in 2007 to around 2.5%. IMF also expects that the expansion will "continue apace" next year. Though, Apr retail sales missed expectation by growing 0.2% mom, 1.6% yoy only.
The Aussie remains firm too and took out this year high of 0.8390, reaching as high as 0.8406 so far, highest since Aug 90. Though RBA is widely expected to keep rate unchanged at 6.25% in the coming Asian session, expectation is still firm on another rate hike, probably in near term. Also, Aussie continues to draw support from carry trade. Q1 GDP will also be closely watched in the coming Asia session too and is expected to grow 1.0% qoq, 2.9% yoy.
Thursday, May 31, 2007
USD/CHF Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2233; (P) 1.2255; (R1) 1.2275
USD/CHF remains bounded in tight range today. Rebound from 1.2198 was limited at 1.2277 and lacks momentum to go further yet. As discussed before, it will take a break above 1.2306 resistance to confirm rebound from 1.1993 has resumed for 61.8% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.1993 at 1.2350. Otherwise, further retreat could still be seen towards 1.2124 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.1993 to 1.2331 at 1.2122).
In the bigger picture, previous break of 1.2282 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.1993 at 1.2282) confirms that fall from 1.2571 has already completed at 1.1993 with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and RSI. More importantly, this will increase the chance that USD/CHF is about to complete a medium term head and shoulder bottom formation (ls: 1.1919, h: 1.1878, rs: 1.1993). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement at 1.2350 and neckline resistance (1.2768 to 1.2571, now at 1.2347) will add more weight to this case. Stronger rally should then be seen to 1.2571 first and then 1.2768.
However, below 1.2124 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.1993 to 1.2331 at 1.2122) will indicate that rebound from 1.1993 has possible completed and save the case that recent choppy price actions could merely be part of a medium term triangle consolidation. And, down trend from 1.3283 should still resume after completing such consolidation in such case.
In the bigger picture, previous break of 1.2282 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.1993 at 1.2282) confirms that fall from 1.2571 has already completed at 1.1993 with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and RSI. More importantly, this will increase the chance that USD/CHF is about to complete a medium term head and shoulder bottom formation (ls: 1.1919, h: 1.1878, rs: 1.1993). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement at 1.2350 and neckline resistance (1.2768 to 1.2571, now at 1.2347) will add more weight to this case. Stronger rally should then be seen to 1.2571 first and then 1.2768.
However, below 1.2124 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.1993 to 1.2331 at 1.2122) will indicate that rebound from 1.1993 has possible completed and save the case that recent choppy price actions could merely be part of a medium term triangle consolidation. And, down trend from 1.3283 should still resume after completing such consolidation in such case.
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