Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Forex Income Engine


Forex Day-Trading FREEDOM!


Bill Poulos' philosophy has always been about maximizing your profit potential by devoting only a small amount of time each day -- about 20 minutes worth -- to your trading activity. And now he's done it for those of you who prefer to trade the foreign currency markets in ANY time frame...including intra-day!

This complete, NEW Forex trading system in nothing short of brilliant. And you will have your chance to get in as a charter student a few short weeks from now.

This Premium FOREX Course will only be available to a handful of traders (Bill will be providing hands-on guidance, so the number of students has to be limited).

COMING DECEMBER 2008

Forex Income Engine

Forex Day-Trading FREEDOM!

Bill Poulos' philosophy has always been about maximizing your profit potential by devoting only a small amount of time each day -- about 20 minutes worth -- to your trading activity. And now he's done it for those of you who prefer to trade the foreign currency markets in ANY time frame...including intra-day!

This complete, NEW Forex trading system in nothing short of brilliant. And you will have your chance to get in as a charter student a few short weeks from now.

This Premium FOREX Course will only be available to a handful of traders (Bill will be providing hands-on guidance, so the number of students has to be limited).

COMING DECEMBER 2008

Wednesday, July 02, 2008

Euro comes off highs against dollar on caution ahead of U.S. jobs data

The euro came off highs against the dollar on profit-taking ahead of key jobs data out of the U.S. and Thursday's interest rate decision by the European Central Bank. The euro began the day on a firm note, buoyed by hopes of a euro zone rate hike Thursday, but has since edged back down after failing to break through the key $1.5850 mark.

Attention has turned to the release of ADP jobs data out of the U.S., which should give a hint on how the closely-watched official non-farm payroll numbers will look when they are released Thursday. A better-than-expected ISM survey on U.S. manufacturing activity Tuesday provided some optimism that the U.S. economy may be over the worst. Many remain sceptical, however, and any gains are proving to be shortlived.

"The dollar's failure to rally despite the firm headline ISM number shows investors are highly sceptical of the U.S.' near-term economic prospects," said Geoffrey Yu at UBS. The euro/dollar rate is likely to remain confined to tight ranges as market players stay sidelined ahead of what is largely expected to be a quarter point interest rate rise from the ECB Thursday.

With the euro zone economy showing signs of faltering, however, the key focus will be on the accompanying press conference for any signals on whether the central bank will be in a position to deliver any more rate rises.

Euro zone PPI data earlier Wednesday nevertheless continued to suggest that the ECB's worries over rising inflationary pressures have far from gone away. The figures showed producer prices in the region rose by 1.2 percent in May from April and by 7.1 percent from a year earlier, way above forecasts for more moderate gains of 0.7 and 6.6 percent respectively.

Elsewhere, the pound remained weak, with the euro earlier hitting a 23-day high against the UK currency of 0.7968, as UK data pointed to a very bleak outlook for the UK housing and construction sectors.

The latest UK construction PMI slumped to 38.8 in June from 43.9 in May, showing activity in the sector declining at the fastest pace since the series began in 1997. At the same time, housing equity withdrawal slumped to its lowest level since the first quarter of 2001, according to figures released by the Bank of England.

The news comes amid major concerns about the outlook for the housebuilding sector, as shares in Taylor Wimpey Plc lost nearly half their value after it announced it had failed to raise equity and will cut 900 jobs, as conditions in the housebuilding market continue to deteriorate.

Euro comes off highs against dollar on caution ahead of U.S. jobs data

The euro came off highs against the dollar on profit-taking ahead of key jobs data out of the U.S. and Thursday's interest rate decision by the European Central Bank. The euro began the day on a firm note, buoyed by hopes of a euro zone rate hike Thursday, but has since edged back down after failing to break through the key $1.5850 mark.

Attention has turned to the release of ADP jobs data out of the U.S., which should give a hint on how the closely-watched official non-farm payroll numbers will look when they are released Thursday. A better-than-expected ISM survey on U.S. manufacturing activity Tuesday provided some optimism that the U.S. economy may be over the worst. Many remain sceptical, however, and any gains are proving to be shortlived.

"The dollar's failure to rally despite the firm headline ISM number shows investors are highly sceptical of the U.S.' near-term economic prospects," said Geoffrey Yu at UBS. The euro/dollar rate is likely to remain confined to tight ranges as market players stay sidelined ahead of what is largely expected to be a quarter point interest rate rise from the ECB Thursday.

With the euro zone economy showing signs of faltering, however, the key focus will be on the accompanying press conference for any signals on whether the central bank will be in a position to deliver any more rate rises.

Euro zone PPI data earlier Wednesday nevertheless continued to suggest that the ECB's worries over rising inflationary pressures have far from gone away. The figures showed producer prices in the region rose by 1.2 percent in May from April and by 7.1 percent from a year earlier, way above forecasts for more moderate gains of 0.7 and 6.6 percent respectively.

Elsewhere, the pound remained weak, with the euro earlier hitting a 23-day high against the UK currency of 0.7968, as UK data pointed to a very bleak outlook for the UK housing and construction sectors.

The latest UK construction PMI slumped to 38.8 in June from 43.9 in May, showing activity in the sector declining at the fastest pace since the series began in 1997. At the same time, housing equity withdrawal slumped to its lowest level since the first quarter of 2001, according to figures released by the Bank of England.

The news comes amid major concerns about the outlook for the housebuilding sector, as shares in Taylor Wimpey Plc lost nearly half their value after it announced it had failed to raise equity and will cut 900 jobs, as conditions in the housebuilding market continue to deteriorate.

Sunday, June 22, 2008

Dollar Broadly Lower, FOMC & Carry Trades Watched

Dollar was broadly lower last week as markets readjusted over-expectation on the chance of rate hike from Fed and renewed concern of credit crisis. Indeed, the odds of a 25bps hike in this week's FOMC meeting, as implied by interest rate futures, dropped sharply to a slim 8% chance after a series of disappointing economic data last week. Elsewhere in the markets, rate gap and expectation remained the dominant force with Aussie and Kiwi climbing most while the Japanese yen was broadly lower but the yen regained some grounds towards the end of the week as global stock markets tumbled. FOMC meeting will take center stage this week with a number of important economic data featured from US, Eurozone and UK.

On the data front, the data released last week provided little good news to the US economy. Headline PPI climbed sharply from 6.2% yoy to 7.2% yoy in May, beating expectation of 6.8%. Core PPI, on the other hand, was unchanged at 3.0% yoy. Housing starts dropped further to 0.975m annualized rate, a 17 year low. Building permits also dropped to 0.969m, annualized rate. NY State Manufacturing report dropped sharply from -3 to -8.68 in Jun versus expectation of -3.0. The index has been negative in four of the past five months as conditions remain restrictive. Philly Fed index also missed expectation and dropped further to -17.1 in Jun. Industrial production missed expectation and dropped -0.2% mom in May, with capacity utilization down from 79.7% to 79.4%. Current account deficit widened to -176.4b in Q1. Leading indicators climbed 0.1% in May. Jobless claims came in at 381k, slightly worse than expectation of 375k. TIC capital inflow recorded sharp rise to 115.1b in Apr.

Eurozone HICP was revised up to all time high of 3.7% yoy in May, up from prior month's 3.3%. Trade surplus in Eurozone came in at 2.3B in Jun. Germany ZEW dropped to a 15 year low of -52.4. Germany PPI climbed 1.0% mom, 6.0% yoy, above expectation of 0.9% mom, 5.8% yoy.

It was a big week for the pound. Headline CPI accelerated further to 3.3% yoy in May, with RPI climbed to 4.3% yoy, RPI-X climbed to 4.4% yoy. With inflation above 3.0%, BoE Governor King was triggered to write an open letter to Chancellor Darling. In the letter, King explained that oil and food prices, which alone account for 1.1% of the 1.2% increase in CPI since Dec, was the major driving factor in the current surge in consumer inflation. He noted that he expected a sequence of open letter over the next year or so. However, the overall tone was much less hawkish than expected. King noted that the path to bring inflation down to the bank's 2% target was "uncertain" even though CPI may exceed 4% this year. This disappointed the markets who has been expecting King to sketch a clear plan.

BoE minutes released showed an 8-1 vote too keep rates unchanged in the Jun meeting. Blanchflower was the sole dissenter voting for a 25bps cut. Most members believed that short term inflation outlook has worsened further and medium term inflation risks have moved further to the upside. If there were a serious threat to medium-term inflation expectations then a preemptive rise in rates would be appropriate," but after all, they still believe that a slowdown in the economy is enough to bring CPI back to the 2% target in medium term. The minutes also explicitly said that there was no case of a cut because of the inflation risks.

UK retail sales grew 3.5% mom in May, the most since 1986, pushing yoy rate to 8.1%, much stronger than consensus of -0.1% mom and 4.1% yoy. The data argued that UK consumer spending is still robust despite sluggish rate growth and inflation. Also, the data lifted some hope for BoE to raise rate to curb the persistently high inflation but it remains premature to draw conclusion based on just one piece of data. CBI industrial survey surprised on the upside by turning positive to +1 in Jun.

BoJ minutes released noted that the board members are fully aware of the risks on both growth and inflation, but there is little chance to change policy stance in the near future. Japanese Tertiary Industry index climbed 1.8% in Apr. All industry index climbed 0.8% in Apr.

SNB left three-month Libor unchanged at 2.25-3.25%, with mid point at 2.75%. The accompanying statement noted that there is a general increase in inflation since "the global economy remains robust and the price of oil has continued to climb" even though economic activity slowed down. Financial markets are "less turbulent". Real GDP forecasts in 2008 was unchanged at 1.5-2.0%, but inflation forecast is up to 2.7% SNB expected that with current Libor rate of 2.75%, inflation will ease back to 1.7% in 2009 and 1.3% in 200. Swiss retail sales climbed 2.4% mom in Apr, above expectation of 2.0%. ZEW index deteriorated further from -60.4 to -63.8 in Jun. Combined PPI climbed 1.2% mom, 3.9% yoy in May, above expectation of 0.9% mom, 3.6% yoy. Industrial production dropped -9.3% qoq in Q1, rose 4.3% yoy.

Canadian headline CPI accelerate for the second consecutive month, and at a much faster than expected pace, from 1.7% yoy to 2.2% yoy in May. Though, core CPI remains unchanged at 1.5%. The data provided the solid bullet for BoC to kept rates on hold last week and is supportive to BoC to refrain from further rate cut in view of rising inflationary pressure. Retail sales report was solid which saw ex-auto sales jumped by 1.1% in Apr, much better than consensus of 0.7%. Headline sales rose 0.6% mom, inline with expectations. Leading indicators climbed more than expected by 0.2% in May.

RBA meeting minutes said that "on current policy settings, the necessary moderation in demand is likely to occur. This is taken as a signal that RBA is comfortable with the current policy stance and reduced the chance of another hike in the near future.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis is a technique that attempts to determine a Currency strength by focusing on underlying factors that affect a country's actual business and its future prospects. On a broader scope, you can perform fundamental analysis on economy as a whole. The term simply refers to the analysis of the economic well-being of a financial entity as opposed to only its price movements.

Example for Fundamental Analysis based on Economics Event :

What moves EUR/USD?

1. US Non Farm Payroll — measures new jobs created in States.
2. Interest rates — FOMC rate decisions.
3. US Trade Balance, European Trade Balance — a proportion between exports and imports in US economy.
4. U.S. Current Account
5. US Treasury Inflow Capital (TIC) Data — a measure of how much foreign buying of country's securities takes place.
6. US Gross domestic product (GDP) — a measurement of growth in economy.
7. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Rate Decisions — data about changes in currency rates.
8. US Retail Sales — a measure of strength of consumer expenditure.
9. Consumer price index (CPI) — a measure of inflation in Europe.

What moves USD/JPY?
Besides US economic indicators, there are important data of Japan economy with its indicators:

1. Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting — decides on measures to preserve strength of the currency.
2. Japanese Trade Balance — Japanese imports versus exports.
3. Gross domestic product (GDP) — growth in an economy.
4. Consumer price index (CPI) — a measure of inflation.
5. Industrial production index — a measure of activity in the Japanese manufacturing sector
6. Retail sales — a measure of strength of consumer expenditure.
7. Tankan report — assessment of Japanese business conditions: proportion of "optimistic" businesses to "pessimistic" ones.
8. Unemployment rate

What moves GBP/USD?
All US economic indicators should be watched plus:
1. UK Housing Prices — number one indicator for Pound, UK Housing Prices are primary gauge of inflation in the UK.
2. Bank of England Meeting — provides an outline of monetary policy and changes to currency interest rates.
3. UK Unemployment rate
4. UK Retail Sales

Dollar Gains Narrowly Vs Euro, Yen In Data-Light Session

The dollar is faintly stronger versus its major rivals early Wednesday, but a lack of major data releases is keeping trading muted.


Without any economic reports to guide currency markets, traders are focusing on a dollar-supportive ease in oil prices overnight. However, earnings results from Morgan Stanley (MS) are weighing on U.S. sentiment.


This sideways trading will likely grip the dollar until next week, say analysts, when the market will finally receive a single view on monetary policy and an interest rate decision from the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday.


The attention to interest rates has kept the lower-yielding yen under pressure from its crosses. The yen fell overnight to its lowest level since July 2007 against the euro, which rose as high as Y168.05. Against the dollar, the yen is within range of its four-month low struck Monday.


Early Wednesday in New York, the euro was at $1.5497 from $1.5513 late Tuesday. The dollar was at Y108.13 from Y107.96. The euro was at Y167.57 from Y167.53 late Tuesday, according to ECB. The U.K. pound was at $1.9545 from $1.9573, while the dollar was at CHF1.0426 from CHF1.0420 Tuesday.


Given oil's dominance over the dollar's movements, traders are looking toward the release at 10:35 a.m. EDT of the latest U.S. Energy Department oil inventories. Oil traders have said the data will be the key driver for prices, and therefore could swing the buck from its narrow range Wednesday.


Meanwhile, the euro was briefly boosted overnight versus the dollar on a warning from European Central Bank executive board member Juergen Stark that inflation levels remain "unacceptably high." He said that there is a need to check that the current policy rate is appropriate to counter price risks.


That supports the market view that the ECB is likely to hike interest rates at its next meeting in July, which would increase the yield of the euro versus the dollar.


However, other ECB officials recently appeared to be trying to temper the market's tightening expectations, holding down excessive euro gains.


The dollar too was tempered in its advance due to a scaling back of market expectations of interest rate hikes by the Fed, especially after U.S. data releases Tuesday also painted a still strained economic picture.


Elsewhere, the pound remained under fairly heavy selling pressure after the Bank of England signaled Wednesday that although U.K. inflation could rise as far as 4% later this year, the bank is in no position to hike interest rates given the weakness of the U.K. economy and the risk this would pose to financial markets.


Publication of the latest minutes from the BOE monetary policy committee failed to shift sentiment as they showed members voting 8 to 1 to leave rates unchanged, very much as the market expected.


In Shanghai, broad weakness in the U.S. dollar and a fall in the dollar-yuan fixing rate pushed China's yuan to a record high against the U.S. unit Wednesday. Dealers said the dollar will likely consolidate around the psychological support of CNY6.8800 the rest of the week, given its sharp drop against the yuan recently.

Dollar Gains Narrowly Vs Euro, Yen In Data-Light Session

The dollar is faintly stronger versus its major rivals early Wednesday, but a lack of major data releases is keeping trading muted.


Without any economic reports to guide currency markets, traders are focusing on a dollar-supportive ease in oil prices overnight. However, earnings results from Morgan Stanley (MS) are weighing on U.S. sentiment.


This sideways trading will likely grip the dollar until next week, say analysts, when the market will finally receive a single view on monetary policy and an interest rate decision from the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday.


The attention to interest rates has kept the lower-yielding yen under pressure from its crosses. The yen fell overnight to its lowest level since July 2007 against the euro, which rose as high as Y168.05. Against the dollar, the yen is within range of its four-month low struck Monday.


Early Wednesday in New York, the euro was at $1.5497 from $1.5513 late Tuesday. The dollar was at Y108.13 from Y107.96. The euro was at Y167.57 from Y167.53 late Tuesday, according to ECB. The U.K. pound was at $1.9545 from $1.9573, while the dollar was at CHF1.0426 from CHF1.0420 Tuesday.


Given oil's dominance over the dollar's movements, traders are looking toward the release at 10:35 a.m. EDT of the latest U.S. Energy Department oil inventories. Oil traders have said the data will be the key driver for prices, and therefore could swing the buck from its narrow range Wednesday.


Meanwhile, the euro was briefly boosted overnight versus the dollar on a warning from European Central Bank executive board member Juergen Stark that inflation levels remain "unacceptably high." He said that there is a need to check that the current policy rate is appropriate to counter price risks.


That supports the market view that the ECB is likely to hike interest rates at its next meeting in July, which would increase the yield of the euro versus the dollar.


However, other ECB officials recently appeared to be trying to temper the market's tightening expectations, holding down excessive euro gains.


The dollar too was tempered in its advance due to a scaling back of market expectations of interest rate hikes by the Fed, especially after U.S. data releases Tuesday also painted a still strained economic picture.


Elsewhere, the pound remained under fairly heavy selling pressure after the Bank of England signaled Wednesday that although U.K. inflation could rise as far as 4% later this year, the bank is in no position to hike interest rates given the weakness of the U.K. economy and the risk this would pose to financial markets.


Publication of the latest minutes from the BOE monetary policy committee failed to shift sentiment as they showed members voting 8 to 1 to leave rates unchanged, very much as the market expected.


In Shanghai, broad weakness in the U.S. dollar and a fall in the dollar-yuan fixing rate pushed China's yuan to a record high against the U.S. unit Wednesday. Dealers said the dollar will likely consolidate around the psychological support of CNY6.8800 the rest of the week, given its sharp drop against the yuan recently.

Wednesday, June 04, 2008

Battered and Bruised

Battered and Bruised

It was a manic Monday for the British Pound, plunging hundreds of pips against major currencies on word of new troubles in the lending sector. Mortgage lender Bradford and Bingley, popularly known as B&B, is in serious trouble, and is selling off a huge chunk of its business in an effort to remain afloat. The news hit the British Pound hard, sending the currency spiraling to a 300 pip loss vs. the Japanese Yen in the space of three hours (see Figure 1).



Figure 1: 15 minute chart shows GBP/JPY plunge of 300 pips on June 2. Source: Saxo Bank

Both Bradford and Bingley started out as separate "building societies", and merged in 1964. In recent years, B&B has transformed itself into a specialist mortgage bank and is now Britain's largest provider of loans to landlords and property investors. Clearly this is not the best business to be in right now, as the U.K.'s housing bubble appears to be deflating rapidly. B&B also provides so-called "self-cert" loans for the self-employed, similar in some ways to the "no-doc" loans that caused so much trouble for U.S. mortgage companies over the past several years. To shore up its finances, the lender is planning to sell a 23% stake to US private equity giant Texas Pacific Group. B&B also was forced to cancel a rights offering that was designed to raise capital to shore up the lender's bottom line. As traders digested this news, the British Pound was hit hard against the U.S. Dollar, with the GBP/USD pair falling over 200 pips before finding support at 1.9600, as seen here on the hourly chart (see Figure 2).


Figure 2: GBP/USD takes a hard fall, losing over 200 pips in short order. Source: Saxo Bank

The Great Britain Pound - U.S. Dollar chart is intriguing on the longer time frames as well; in fact, some have suggested that the weekly chart shows a massive head and shoulders formation. Depending on how you look at it, one could say that this sloppy top has been under construction for several years. You can also see that the Pound has not been strong against the greenback for months, stretching back to November. This is despite the fact that the USD fell to new lows vs. the Euro and Australian Dollar during that time. Hey, it's not pretty, but you can see a topping formation in the chart, with major support in the area of 1.9400 (see Figure 3).


Figure 3: GBP/USD weekly chart shows a long-term topping formation. Source: Saxo Bank

Like Glenn Close's obsessed character in the classic '80's movie "Fatal Attraction", the subprime/credit mess just won't die. So what's next for the British Pound? Traders are looking for clues as to whether a bailout might be in the works. Northern Rock, the best known British victim of the credit squeeze and a rival of B&B's, was nationalized by the British government after it ran into severe trouble acquiring credit to finance its operations. Keep an eye on the minutes of the Bank of England's most recent meeting, to be released this Thursday, for indications as to whether the BoE had deeper concerns about the banking sector when they met recently. Just the thought that after all this time there could be more shoes to drop - possibly another Bear Stearns, or another Northern Rock - could serve as a major blow to confidence in both currency and equity markets. Stay tuned.

Email of the Week

Q) Hi Ed, I read your articles and they gave me the little push I needed to begin to make some gains in this market. I want to know what you think of my way to trade. I'm a day worker, and I trade from 22:00 (EST) to 02:00 (EST). My risk is 6% per trade (because my $1 dollar per pip mini account), and never left an open position overnight. The most of the time I never get big moves, just little swings, and at least try to take 1:1 risk reward ratio plus the spread, but this does not always happen and sometimes I get out early if I notice some risky move.

Now in almost two months I have a gain of 45%. I win 62% of my trades, 15% breakeven, and 23% loss. If I get more equity on my account I will reduce my risk per trade, close half of the positions on some level, set my stop at breakeven and let my profits run more. I wish to know your opinion and perhaps some advice from you. Thanks for your time!

Ed Ponsi) Thank you for your kind words, I really appreciate it! Wow, it sounds like you're doing great trading the Asian session, congratulations! I'm glad to hear that you're making money, now I need you to protect your gains with good risk management. It sounds like you're already doing this, but risk management is a never-ending struggle - especially when you are doing well! It doesn't matter how much money we make if we give it back, so job #1 is to hang on to those gains, no matter what market conditions may occur. Here are some changes that I would try to make:

1) Increase your risk-reward ratio. One of the tenets of good trading is to make more money when you win than you put at risk when you lose. In my opinion risk to reward ratio is more important than the number of winners vs. losers. I've seen plenty of traders who had a high win-loss ratio, but because of the level of risk that they are taking, some of them are just one loss away from a margin call.

2) Try to reduce risk and work in those partial exits; this is a great way to let winners run. I know that this might be tough because of capital concerns, etc. but at least create game plans for doing this. That way, when you're ready, it won't seem like a strange new world to you.

3) Don't forget to have fun! As traders, we have the best job in the world - we are basically paid to play a game of pattern recognition and psychology. What could be better than that? Be sure to reward yourself for all of the hard work that you put into learning how to trade, you deserve it! This is also important psychologically, that you have some kind of tangible reward for the work you've done - even if it's symbolic. Congratulations and keep up the good work!

The Bo Diddley Beat

What can you say about a man who had his own beat named after him? I was lucky enough to see this rock guitar legend perform on Randall's Island (a sliver of land on New York's East River, located between Manhattan and Queens) in the summer of 2004, and he tore it up - not bad for a man in his mid-seventies! Rest in peace, Bo Diddley.

Have a question about Forex trading? Send an email to eponsi@tradingacademy.com and we may use your question in an upcoming newsletter. Until next time, best of luck to you in trading.

Saturday, May 03, 2008

Watch Out for Scam Forex Seminar !

a lot of forex seminar in Malaysia have misleading words to amateur traders. Those seminar guru provide good sales talk with misleading words with forex rewards, hidden the real truth of forex marketing trading risk disclosure. Beware of those 100% accuracy forex trading by MR K.

Saturday, September 08, 2007

Euro in Range, Sterling Retreats after Central Banks on Hold

Euro in Range, Sterling Retreats after Central Banks on Hold

Euro stays in tight range while Sterling retreats mildly term ECB and BoE left rates unchanged. ECB kept rates unchanged at 4.00% today. In the following press conference, Trichet said that even though policy stance is still on the "accommodative side" and inflation risks remains on the upside in the medium term, more information is needed before the next policy move. Also Trichet said that it's too early to draw conclusion from the current correction in risk reassessment. No "vigilance" was used by Trichet this time which suggests that ECB will be on hold for a while, at least, till Oct. One thing to note is that Trichet emphasized a few times that ECB has to ensure that money markets function properly whatever the interest rate is and that this is completely separate topic to maintaining price stability. Also, ECB announced a new long-term refinancing operation as a supplementary operation will be conducted, the details of which will be available right after the press conference.

BoE kept rates unchanged at 5.75% as widely expected. In the accompanying statement BoE expect inflation to remain close to its 2% target, or a "little below", in the next few months. Also, "tentative signs of a lowing in consumer spending" is noted. But "indicators of pricing pressure remain somewhat elevated. " Regarding the recent credit crunch, BoE noted that it's too soon to tell how the disruption in financial markets will impair the availability of credit to companies and households but will monitor closely the evolution of both "credit spreads" and the "quantities of credit extended". more details will be available in the minutes to be published on Sep 19.

From US, jobless claims dropped more than expected to 318k. Q2 productivity accelerated more than expected to 2.6% while unit labor costs slowed to 1.4%, suggesting reduced risk of wave inflation. Next will be ISM Non-manufacturing Index. Dollar has been pressured since yesterday's poor ADP and pending home sales. Additional pressure will be seen in case of downside surprise in today's ISM non-manufacturing index as markets are already speculating and poor NFP number tomorrow.