EUR/USD's

EUR/USD's rise from 1.3391 stalls after breaking short term falling trend line (now at 1.3523) briefly. Nevertheless, intraday bias will remain on the upside as long as 1.3487 holds. Since the corrective fall from 1.3681 is regarded as completed with three waves down to 1.3391 with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI, further rally is expected to follow to towards 1.3609 resistance. Break will encourage a retest of 1.3681 high.

On the downside, touching of 1.3487 will turn intraday outlook consolidative first. In case of pull back, sustained trading below 1.3364 cluster support is needed to confirm underlying bearishness. Otherwise, the corrective fall from 1.3681 is still considered either ended or to be ended soon. That is, another strong rebound is likely to follow.

In the bigger picture, with 1.3364 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2865 to 1.3681 at 1.3369) remains intact, the rise from 1.2865 is still expected to resume to above 1.3681. However, risk of medium term reversal is still high. As discussed before, medium term up trend from 1.1639 is interpreted as having first move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend from 1.1639. With such interpretation, we'd expect risk of medium term reversal to increase significantly after EUR/USD met resistance zone between 1.3668 and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Hence, focus is now on reversal signals.

On the downside, decisive break of 1.3364 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2865 to 1.3681 at 1.3369) is needed to confirm a medium term top is made. More importantly, with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and RSI, this will warn that the whole rally from 1.2483 has also completed, and, so is the whole up trend from 1.1639. Focus will then be back to medium term rising channel support (now at 1.3049).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3489; (P) 1.3520; (R1) 1.3555